Ciao Capello

So the Italian Job has ended in less than spectacular style, with Fabio resigning after a meeting with the FA today. I found the news out before the official release from a reliable source, and tried to get as much money as I could on him to go, unfortuanely every bookie was switched on and had taken down all their markets.

Q. So how does his resignation affect Englands Euro chances?

A. It won't.

We see at club level chairman overreacting every season to a run of bad results, e.g. Leeds and Grayson, QPR and Warnock. The chances are the new manager will come on a wave of anticaption of how he can "turn the club around" but what fans don't realise is that for every manager that helps the club progress, there is one that can't prevent the club falling behind.

Let us not forget, Capello hasn't been sacked, and in this case we have to consider the manager coming in, has to do a better/worse job than what Capello did. Looking at Capello's 67% win rate, good qualification record and 1-0 victory over Spain (unquestionably the worlds best team currently), his successor certainly has a really tough task.

Redknapp is the odds on favourite at 2/7, a price I wouldn't touch with my worst enemies money, and if anything the potential new manager is going to find it harder to acheive any success than Capello would of having no international management experience.



The 10/1 for England available at Stan James isn't a price that interests me, and markets have remained stable as expected even after the depature of Capello.

On the subject of Euro 2012, I haven't found a huge amount of value yet in the outrights (will post when I finish the model), but ROI to qualify from Group C at 5/1 with William Hill looks like value :). They wont win the group, and 20's isn't close to the real price, they do however posess a better than 16.67% chance of finishing 1st or 2nd.

It will bar a miracle come down to the Republics last group game with Italy, Spain may field a second string side against Croatia, but will still be favourites. I can't see ROI progressing further than the quarters, but think they have a real chance of getting there as the battle for that runner up spot will be a dog fight.



Also, casing point - Don't bet on a top goalscorer yet, unless you enjoy throwing money away.

Injuries will play a huge part leading up to the tournament.


Chris

Who will lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy?

The Superbowl is labelled the greatest show on Earth for a reason, it is one hell of a show! With regards to top level American Football though I am not so sure.

Every championship game tends to be a tight affair, and I can't disagree with the bookies line of -3 New England Patriots here. 

Both teams have fantastic offence, but a lot of questions have been asked throughout the season around the Patriots D. There is no doubt that we are in for a lot of passing yards this game, with my calculation at 318 and 310 for Brady and Manning respectively. I think the Patriots will have enough on the night, it will probably be a lower scoring game than the 54 quoted, but I have found some decent value in other stats markets.

Under 4.5 Sacks 1/1 Sporting Bet. - I have this price at closer to 5/6, Manning should be the more susceptible on the night of the 2.

Team to punt the most New England Patriots 17/10 Tote- Comparing 3rd down %'s every bookie has the Giants as slight favorites, though I believe there is hardly anything in it, taking a wider perspective of how bad I think New Englands Defense really is. For the season opponents first down is 65.84 % for New England which is 29th in the league. The Giants are 18th but if you look at the other combinations, I think these two are a lot closer than the bookies have it.

GL

Alright so I'm home for Xmas. Back to where my parents live for a couple days - some sleepy village in the south of England. 

I decided not to bring my laptop or obviously my desktop since I'm only around for a few days (obv bring the iPad cos who can live without the Internet?). Just get done with watching Match Of The Day, and the family go to bed. I stay downstairs messing about on the iPad (which is kinda painful sometimes... The Internet in the village ain't great) watching some gash film in the background (kinda whacked out on Tramadol (pain meds) it's also worth mentioning.)

A good mate messages me telling me there's some good action. I tell him that I have no computer so it would be tough. Suddenly I remember I have left my desktop on at my home (about 60 miles away) so I use an app on the iPad called logmein which allows you to control your PC from your iPad, so I can rail. 

The game was full and there was a waiting list by now. It was also 200/400 which is 4x higher than I've ever played, so I'm good to rail my mate who is doing well. A few hands in I realise wtf this guy is terrible. Really bad. I join the wait but whatever, he'll be gone soon. 

He busts and I close the program and tell my mate to lmk if he's ever on again. He informs me "he is, right now" load back up, and it's true he's sat again with another $20k at another table. I get a seat to his right. 

11 hands in I get AA in the bb. He raises UTG I reraise sth ridiculous and we get it in on a 692cc and I hold. 

So that is the story of how I won a ~$41k pot, 60 miles away from my computer in a remote village, on my iPad, high on pain meds. 

X

Oh and wd to my boy who had a 100k day.

After a year of living in Thailand, balling out with a load of poker players, not knowing what day it is (in fact, i'm ashamed to say it took me a good minute to remember what year it was when I was at the airport.. i am aware this is a terrible thing), getting drunk 4x/week and travelling to 13 different countries to sight-see and party, I am back in the UK.

I'm back home to be precise. The move was looong. I had way too much stuff in my possession. I don't quite know how I had that much stuff even if you do ignore my ridiculous collection of Japanese t-shirts. 

I'm back to finish degree in business at university. Moved in to a 6 person house with 5 close friends. It's worlds away from the life I've had for the past year (living in the penthouse of the 36th&37th floor which the ambassador of Switzerland had just moved out of comes to mind), however that's not to say it's worse in any way.. in fact I know it will be awesome, despite having to get up at unsociable hours (9am) and not having a maid (this just starting to sink in). It will however be nice to not be spending 5 figures each month on just living and going out.

Poker has not been going as I had hoped. I had my worst ever downswing recently (and I have had a few $100k/50+bi downswings), and technically am still in it. Also feel aside from this I am running super bad (not just EV wise, which, obviously doesn't look pretty). Though now starting to settle into the new house, have the two 30" monitors back up and running and am ready to grind again!

Along with this, I'm starting to get a few investments together. Me and my cousin are buying a daycare center which she will run and we will split the investments/profits down the middle. Also invested in an app and looking into making another one with a friend, which I will keep people up to date with as and when they are released.

Basically I'm just trying to diversify a lot, and get passive income coming in to go with the rent from my flat that I bought. The hope.. to have enough passive income coming in so that it pays for my lifestyle and I can do whatever i want wherever i want. 

x

Edit: Still wondering if FTP are gonna give us all back the money they stole off us, not quite up to date on that subject.. really should try catching up.

Long time!

So I thought I'd do a quick update.

Just finished playing for the month, played looooaaads this month. Won around 53k before rakeback. Did pretty well in Feb too, but had a nasty Jan.

Living in Bangkok still, after a trip to Japan and America with some mates which was fun. I'm living with 2 friends, our apartment won ~155k this month, not so bad.

Hmmm, other things, am doing a diet by Tim Ferriss. Seems pretty good, and can still eat loads of tasty food. Mainly focuses on not eating white foods and is v high in protein. Also learning Japanese, though very slowly as I'm doing it on my own at the moment.

That's a breif summary of the last couple months.

Gl

long time.

Long time no update.

Partly cos I just don't have too much to say. Lost $10kish in Oct. Won $17kish in November.

In Bangkok at the moment. Not in great health. Have a bad eye infection. It's annoying me quite a bit actually.

I have nothing to more to add. I'm sure I will when I do though.

Gl

update for Sept

Realllly busy right now preparing to go round the world tomorrow so just a quick update.

Played like 70k hands won $200 or sth. Prob +3k in rakeback? but lost about that staking a friend in the WSOPE.

So just above even.

GL

This is August.

Just ran mindblowingly bad.

1k hands of 25/50. The rest was 10/20. When I hit the lowest point I just said f it, I'll grind some 5/10 for a while. First time in like a year and a half or sth? At times it was just unreal soft.


For the record last month was +55k or something.. the graph just didn't fit in the space (you can always tell by the writing in the top left of a graph).