Ciao Capello

So the Italian Job has ended in less than spectacular style, with Fabio resigning after a meeting with the FA today. I found the news out before the official release from a reliable source, and tried to get as much money as I could on him to go, unfortuanely every bookie was switched on and had taken down all their markets.

Q. So how does his resignation affect Englands Euro chances?

A. It won't.

We see at club level chairman overreacting every season to a run of bad results, e.g. Leeds and Grayson, QPR and Warnock. The chances are the new manager will come on a wave of anticaption of how he can "turn the club around" but what fans don't realise is that for every manager that helps the club progress, there is one that can't prevent the club falling behind.

Let us not forget, Capello hasn't been sacked, and in this case we have to consider the manager coming in, has to do a better/worse job than what Capello did. Looking at Capello's 67% win rate, good qualification record and 1-0 victory over Spain (unquestionably the worlds best team currently), his successor certainly has a really tough task.

Redknapp is the odds on favourite at 2/7, a price I wouldn't touch with my worst enemies money, and if anything the potential new manager is going to find it harder to acheive any success than Capello would of having no international management experience.



The 10/1 for England available at Stan James isn't a price that interests me, and markets have remained stable as expected even after the depature of Capello.

On the subject of Euro 2012, I haven't found a huge amount of value yet in the outrights (will post when I finish the model), but ROI to qualify from Group C at 5/1 with William Hill looks like value :). They wont win the group, and 20's isn't close to the real price, they do however posess a better than 16.67% chance of finishing 1st or 2nd.

It will bar a miracle come down to the Republics last group game with Italy, Spain may field a second string side against Croatia, but will still be favourites. I can't see ROI progressing further than the quarters, but think they have a real chance of getting there as the battle for that runner up spot will be a dog fight.



Also, casing point - Don't bet on a top goalscorer yet, unless you enjoy throwing money away.

Injuries will play a huge part leading up to the tournament.


Chris