Typical Spot

***** Hand History for Game 4311368687 ***** (Prima)

$400.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, February 21, 12:15:04 ET 2012

Table Anon Holdem 1  400 Max (Real Money)

Seat 5 is the button

Seat 1: Player 1 ( $400.00 USD )

Seat 2: Player 2 ( $550.50 USD )

Seat 3: Player 3 ( $842.00 USD )

Seat 4: Player 4 ( $428.80 USD )

Seat 5: Player 5 ( $1336.20 USD )

Seat 6: Player 6 ( $226.60 USD )

Player 6 posts small blind [$2.00 USD].

Player 1 posts big blind [$4.00 USD].

Dealt to Player 1 [  Qc Kc ]

Player 2 folds

Player 3 folds

Player 4 raises [$10.00 USD]

Player 5 folds

Player 6 folds

Player 1raises [$32.00 USD]

Player 4 calls [$26.00 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 4s, 9h ]

Player 1bets [$32.00 USD]

Player 4 calls [$32.00 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ Kh ]

Player 1bets [$74.00 USD]

Player 4 calls [$74.00 USD]

** Dealing River ** [ 7s ]

Player 1bets [$258.00 USD]

Player 4 calls [$258.00 USD]

Player 1 shows [Qc, Kc ]

Player 4 shows [Td, Jd ]

Player 4 wins $799.00 USD from main pot

This is a hand a friend played at an anonymous table. We have no reads on the villain.

Villain raises 2.5x from the cutoff and it folds around to hero in the big blind. KQs is more than good enough to 3bet here. However I also don’t mind flat calling either as we are last to act.

This is a decent flop to continuation bet, we have two overcards, a backdoor flush draw and backdoor straight draw. We also don’t mind if we are raised as we can just fold without worrying.

A cbet is also good here as a lot of villains would be 4betting the top of their ranges preflop, therefore be left with quite a weak range. Though, it’s wrong to assume this is what has happened.

The turn is the money card, a great card to barrel and fortunately we just improved to top pair. The river becomes an easy shove for value. There aren’t many draws that missed so check calling would be a mistake, and check folding what will be near the top of his range would be criminal.

Dx

Aussie Rules Value Town

noun

a variation of rugby played almost exclusively in Australia, engaging two teams of eighteen players each on an oval-shaped field about 180 yards (165 meters) long with four upright posts at each end, the object being to kick a rugby ball between these posts.

Origin:
1930–35

Well that’s the dictionary definition.

The reason I have kept such a keen eye on the game over the last year is mainly from a love of watching it at 4:00am, after a heavy night and awful kebab, in an attempt to make the room stop spinning. 

From a professional point of view the amount of errors bookmakers make on these games are farcical.

I can't claim in any shape or form claim to be a guru on the sport, far from it, which makes it even more ludicous I won at 21.2% last year. 

Every UK bookmaker will offer these games, a lot in play as well, but what they don’t do is keep as avid an eye on injury news as they should.

Injuries play a HUGE part in a team’s probability of winning, simply due to the physically dominating nature of the game. If during a match a centre half forward or a full forward gets injured, the replacement has to be as dominate in the air or quick enough to receive the ball. If not the % of times the ball in received in areas where the kicker is 1/100 to score 6 points rapidly decreases, meaning the opposition have a gained a large advantage over their opponent. If a player gets injured in training, it can have a large effect of the subsequent odds.

Of course it is not just as simple as that. If you can get on injury news after a line move in Australia and before the UK bookmakers, you have yourself a decent angle.

My value pick for the season is the Hawks at 11/2 EW with Stan James.

Chris

Cup Preview

Blackpool 13/2  Betfred - Everton at 4/9 are far too short in this game, think they will drift to 4/7 by KO. Happy backing the away win here at that price.

Norwich 10/11 Boyle Sports - Leicester will be highly motivated for this game, but I can't look past the 10/11 here. Carrow Road is a tough place to go, Norwich will field a full strength side, I think this price goes off at 4/5 or 8/11.


Millwall v Bolton Under 2.5 17/20 Goals BetVictor - Both teams problems are scoring goals this season, Millwall average just under a goal a game. Can't see this being a high scoring game, I am very happy backing a "boring" match at this price.

Tonights Football

I thought Southend were a big price last night at 15/8 away to Gillingham. It's one of those games as a punter I didn't want to touch even though I had them as favourties. Sure enough they were 0-2 to the good in the first half, only towards the last 5 minutes did they look in any real danger, finally winning 1-2.

After placing my chips for tonight, lets hope results will be as succesful,

Brighton -0.5 2.25. 5/4 Stan James. - Albion are on a great home run, winning their last 3 games at the Amex. Millwall are in poor form winning only one in the last 7 league fixtures. The problem with Millwall is they can't score enough goals, and despite both teams having FA Cup fixtures on the weekend, I cannot see them fielding weakend sides. I'm pretty sure the real price should be around -0.5 1.95. here.
 
Will update any big moves or value bets later in the evening on Twitter. Keep posted.


Chris

Value?

Further to our post on Introduction to Value Betting, I have just seen one of the most looking books in a while for punters. Not going to mention the name of the bookmaker, but it just goes to show what you need to be thinking about with regards to your betting. The below market is the next premier league manager to go.

McCarthy has just been sacked from wolves, and these are the odds for 15/19 premier league managers, this means if either one of the 4 remaining managers that aren't on the list go, you will still lose your bet.

What makes this worse, is the priced offered for Villas-Boas and Redknapp converted to a % chance is around 97%, and the whole book is around 150% without considering the other managers. The % return you get back on your bets here is actually worse than most slot machines at casinos.

This is a great example of betting on something can be fun, but not long term value.

Micheal Fish - Knowledge is Power

Ok so maybe the well loved weatherman didn't quote "Knowledge is Power", but what is fitting is that when in comes to predicting the weather, we can extract some serious value out of some volatile sports markets.


The conditions for the recent Stoke Sunderland game were pretty abysmal, but its hard to gauge how the conditions will affect either sides performance / goal expectancy in Football. Rugby Union is a great sport to punt on when conditions look dire, as teams will struggle to control a scrum, establish a kicking game, or even get over the line when its tipping down.

3 Weeks ago with torrential rains across the country, I correctly predicted low scoring totals through the rugby union coupon that day landing a nice treble. It is by no means unusual to see expected total points in a game change from 48.5 to 35.5 with predicted snow or rain. If you can react quicker than the bookies, you wont ever go far wrong.

The key to this though is early mornings, and if like me you enjoy a decent Friday night, getting up at 7:00am for a rain check can be tough. If you get up early and with reasonable accuracy predict what the conditions will be like for the afternoon game, the chances are that the bookies haven't taken their prices down over night, so you can get huge value on the under points if its beginning to look grey.

Chris