We all have those friends who waltz into a bookmaker on a
Saturday morning and put an accumulator on the 7 favourites of the weekend’s
Premiership action. “Chelsea at home..
easy banker” he says, while striking the home win box, along with the rest of
his ‘bankers’.
I’m unsure of what the formal definition of a ‘banker’ is in
regards to sports betting. When most people describe the notion of a banker
it’s almost as if they’re dismissing the chances of the result going any other
way. Therefore, a banker is something that will happen with 100% certainty..
and let me tell you, these kind of bets never happen down our
local High Street Bookmaker.
So, now we have established that there are no bets we will
be making that will come in 100% of the time, we need to think about exactly
what percentage of the time our selection will come true.
To consider the percentage and then relate it to the odds is
the correct way we should be thinking about betting of any sort.
Let’s have a quick example. Manchester United are playing
Manchester City at home. We think the win draw win (1X2) likelihood is 45% 27%
28%. That means we have to have to be offered odds on 5/4 13/5 13/5 to break
even over time. In reality, there is a decent chance we will be offered odds of
around 6/5 5/2 9/4, which we wouldn’t back as they are less than our perceived %
chance, however, when we get offered 10/11 5/2 3/1 we would back Manchester
City as the Bookmaker is offering a a price of 3/1 which we believe should be 13/5
at a true price, meaning over time this bet wins at around 3% more often than
the bookmaker suggests.
Due to the ‘banker theory’ (for lack of anything better to
name it), you are never likely to get favourable odds on games such as
Manchester United at home to any team in the bottom half of the table, for
instance; bookies aren’t fans of giving out good odds on something they know
many people will bet on regardless. Just because they are a really short price,
doesn’t mean they always win, so, avoid these types of bets. Inversely there
are some great bets where teams are under-priced travelling to places such as
Old Trafford. An example from this season is Blackburn away at Manchester
United. Odds of around 26/1 could be found amongst bookies giving them a 3.7%
chance of winning. Other teams have visited and seen similar odds against them.
Many of these, we here at wewinbets found to be great value.
Another pitfall of the common punter is betting on novelty
bets. Try to steer clear of betting on anything without an angle or edge e.g
Royal Weddings, on John Terry flying to the moon and for the love of god don’t
bet on seeing a Wayne Rooney apology for banging two hookers written on his
undershirt as he celebrates a goal for England at 36/1.
We must try to have more information or at least a more
accurate opinion than the rest of the people who will be gambling on the event.
This is why betting high profile events is taxing at times to say the least.
So, start thinking about betting in the correct way. Think
in percentages and try to bet on events you know more information about than
the rest of the general betting public. This should set a good base for
potential earnings (or at the very least, limiting your losses).
