Aussie Rules Value Town

noun

a variation of rugby played almost exclusively in Australia, engaging two teams of eighteen players each on an oval-shaped field about 180 yards (165 meters) long with four upright posts at each end, the object being to kick a rugby ball between these posts.

Origin:
1930–35

Well that’s the dictionary definition.

The reason I have kept such a keen eye on the game over the last year is mainly from a love of watching it at 4:00am, after a heavy night and awful kebab, in an attempt to make the room stop spinning. 

From a professional point of view the amount of errors bookmakers make on these games are farcical.

I can't claim in any shape or form claim to be a guru on the sport, far from it, which makes it even more ludicous I won at 21.2% last year. 

Every UK bookmaker will offer these games, a lot in play as well, but what they don’t do is keep as avid an eye on injury news as they should.

Injuries play a HUGE part in a team’s probability of winning, simply due to the physically dominating nature of the game. If during a match a centre half forward or a full forward gets injured, the replacement has to be as dominate in the air or quick enough to receive the ball. If not the % of times the ball in received in areas where the kicker is 1/100 to score 6 points rapidly decreases, meaning the opposition have a gained a large advantage over their opponent. If a player gets injured in training, it can have a large effect of the subsequent odds.

Of course it is not just as simple as that. If you can get on injury news after a line move in Australia and before the UK bookmakers, you have yourself a decent angle.

My value pick for the season is the Hawks at 11/2 EW with Stan James.

Chris